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August was marked by a shift toward a more hawkish stance by major central banks. At the Jackson Hole symposium, the Federal Reserve adopted a resolutely firm tone regarding inflationary risks, reaffirming its determination to maintain price stability. In the eurozone, several members of the European Central Bank also emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive policy, as inflation remained significantly above the 2% target. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank maintained a more cautious stance, given limited inflationary pressures.
Inflation concerns were further stoked by the geopolitical environment. Tensions between the United States and Iran escalated over the course of the month, fueling worries about energy security. The risks of disruptions to global supplies as well as attacks on certain regional oil infrastructure helped maintain upward pressure on energy prices. At the same time, the imposition of new U.S. tariffs on several Canadian products has reignited fears of a resurgence of protectionist pressures. The combination of these energy and trade tensions raises the risk of a resurgence of inflationary pressures on a global scale.
Concerns regarding the sustainability of public finances have also intensified. In the United States, federal debt has surpassed the symbolic threshold of $40,000 billion, while budget deficits remain high. Against this backdrop, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of its long-term bond purchase program. Although initially well-received, this measure has nevertheless sparked heated debate among investors. Several observers view it as an attempt to artificially limit the government’s financing costs without addressing the underlying fiscal imbalances. In Europe, France also drew attention due to a combination of a high public deficit and a political environment that makes fiscal consolidation more uncertain.
The Swiss economy continued to stand out for its resilience. GDP growth came in well above expectations in the second quarter, driven in particular by the pharmaceutical sector. Leading indicators released in August confirm this strength, with the manufacturing and services PMI indices remaining well within expansionary territory. In an international environment marked by tight financial conditions, heightened geopolitical tensions, and growing fiscal concerns, Switzerland thus maintains robust economic fundamentals.
