Although US consumption has been declining for five months, the unemployment rate remains robust at 3.8%. New home sales fell by 3.2% in June, while orders for durable goods rose by 1.6% over the same period.. These contradictory signals complicate monetary policy decisions, which must also contend with a
rebound in inflation. Indeed, the price index has risen to 3.6%, which tends to push back the date of the Fed’s rate cut. US banks believe that capital requirements are too restrictive for economic growth and are asking the Fed to relax them..

In France, mired in budget negotiations, several measures are coming into force this July: an increase in unemployment benefits and the end of the energy price cap. Corporate insolvency proceedings fell in June in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, a sign of hope in an economic climate strained by customs negotiations. The ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged at the end of July, thanks to a slowdown in inflationary pressures. In Switzerland, the SNB’s rate cut is spreading in the form of negative rates for institutional investors. Business confidence is declining.

Les données officielles confirment un rebond solide au 2^ème trimestre 2025 (+5.3% sur le semestre) malgré une consommation domestique et un investissement privé fragiles. Le méga-barrage hydroélectrique au Tibet a été lancé le 23 juillet pour relancer l’activité via les investissements publics dans les matériaux et l’énergie.