In Europe, uncertainty remains high, even if the announcements are less spectacular than on the other side of the Atlantic. Inflation remains broadly stable in the eurozone, but industrial activity continues to show signs of weakness, particularly in Germany. The increase in the minimum wage in Germany, due to come into effect in the autumn, is fuelling debate over a possible return to wage inflation. France, for its part, is seeking to reassure the markets: the government is maintaining its course of reducing the public deficit, despite growth assumptions that have been revised downwards. The rating agencies remain cautious; Moody’s is refraining from any updates, stressing the persistent political uncertainties.

In China, May was a month of reaction. The authorities announced a series of measures to support domestic demand, including targeted fiscal measures and the easing of credit conditions. The aim is clear: to limit the impact of the trade war on the most exposed sectors, at a time when exports to the United States are showing a temporary upturn. Beijing is also preparing new budgetary measures, despite the expected increase in the deficit.

International trade remains under pressure everywhere, and the world economy seems to be hanging on the trade and monetary policy decisions of the major powers. May was not a month of rupture, but rather a time of latent tension, when economic players watched without breathing…waiting for the next shock.