Donald Trump is giving his instructions this January: lower oil prices, lower US interest rates. Unfortunately, neither seems to be responding to his demands. With inflation picking up slightly (2.9% in December), the FED is putting on hold the cycle of rate cuts that began in September. Powell cites domestic political uncertainty as one of the reasons for the pause. If the tariff barriers imposed on Canada, Mexico and China were to rise, excess inflation of between 0.5% and 2% could emerge. From the Fed’s point of view, it is therefore urgent to wait for Donald Trump to clarify the implementation of his policy agenda. And the slowdown in wage growth offers a counterbalance to the impact of the tariffs.